Utah Survives an Upset from California

What a football week. Most of the teams in the Top 10 AP Poll were in jeopardy of an upset. TCU almost lost to Kansas State. Tennessee won Georgia. Florida State was able to avoid an upset against Miami. Michigan State barely sneaked passed the Rutgers with a late touchdown. Then there was Utah and California. Talk about too close for comfort. Utah survived that game is all I can say. 

I did say I was going to evaluate the Utah vs. California game. Keep in mind, though of my criticism. Utah did not play like they were the number one ranked team in the country. Honestly, they should not be ranked for how many turnovers there were in the game. 

I am surprised that Utah was not able to convert all of those turnovers into touchdowns. Five of California's turnovers were in the first half. I have said this before in my previous post about the Alabama vs. Ole Miss game; no team can win a football game with turnovers. Turnovers are a big part of winning and losing. This article proves my point as to why it is nearly impossible to win football games with so many turnovers. "Any football coach you ask will tell you the one statistic they want an advantage in is turnovers," Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau said. "Every football coach wants that turnover advantage. Turnovers generally decide games with teams so evenly matched." How exactly does the defense create turnovers? They cannot create turnovers. Turnovers are random. The defensive coordinator cannot rely on his defense for turnovers. It is impossible. Not everyone can expect the quarterback to throw an interception and they also cannot expect the carrier to fumble the ball. 

I have done some research and found that if the opponent was to make a turnover, the home team is then 73% more likely to win the football game. There are a few ways to measure turnovers; turnover margin, Adj turnover margin, and turnovers luck.  Below is the graph that shows the turnover margin: 

I also want to explain other factors that can determine whether the team is going to lose or not. The first one is explosiveness. Explosiveness is 35% out of the 5 factors. Ways to measure that is yards per play, PPP, and PPP+. PPP means points per play or in other words, average points the team could get on that field position spot they are in. The second factor is efficiency and that is 25% out of the 5 factors. Ways to measure that is the success rate and third down conversions. Third is the field position which takes 15%. Ways to measure that is the average starting field position and the field position advantage. Next is finishing drives which are 15%. That is measured by points per trip inside the 40, red zone scoring, and red zone S&P+. S&P is measured by the success rate and the PPP. We have already discussed turnovers, but it is about 10% out of the 5 factors.  

Now that I have educated you all about statistics and how they are calculated, here is something you cannot really calculate. That is, what are the chances that the head coach would have this reaction for a turnover?

https://vine.co/v/e0TUKmZKMAI

Anyways, back to Utah and California. I will not even bother trying to calculate the statistics for that game since both teams played poorly. Jared Goff threw five interceptions. If I was the head coach for California I would start second guessing my choice for the starting quarterback. I will give Utah credit for one thing, their defense is actually pretty good. I was really surprised how well they pressured the offense. Clearly that was giving California a hard time, but do not forget that Utah made some mistakes as well. Travis Wilson threw two interceptions. California was able to get a field goal with one of those interceptions. Regardless that California got a field goal, if those interceptions were turned into touchdowns Utah would have lost the game. Utah was able to get two touchdowns and a field goal with those turnovers from California. Again, California had a total of six turnovers and Utah was only able to turn three of those turnovers to points. Utah would have nothing to worry about in the last half of the game if they executed their plays a lot better. 

The season of football is my favorite time of the year. I cannot wait for the playoffs because that is the true test to find out who is the best college football team in the nation. There are going to be some really good football games next week. Michigan is playing Michigan State and that is going to be an intense and exciting game. Alabama is playing Texas A&M and I will say I am a little worried because they have been a difficult competitor in past seasons. LSU and Florida will be playing head-to-head for their spot in the top 10 AP poll. I will be evaluating the Alabama vs. Texas A&M game next week and be prepared for the tide to roll through. Roll Tide!