Alabama Surpasses Everyone's Expectations

Those of you who expected Alabama to crumble to Texas A&M, you are on my list. I had complete faith and confidence that Alabama would win. Unfortunately, I was not able to watch the game. I did keep track of the scoring plays with my ESPN alerts on my phone and let just say that Derek Henry was on FIRE! 236 yards for a running back? Derek Henry for Heisman everybody.

I do need to lash out some anger to the tv reporters on ESPN. You may skip the next paragraph if my opinions do not entertain you. Alright here we go...

Why in the world is Leonard Fournette from LSU number one in the polls for Heisman?? Has everyone gone mad?! They are even saying Devontae Booker from Utah will be considered for Heisman. Did anyone see the Utah game against Arizona? It was a joke! I will talk about that game later because I watched the whole thing. Fournette stats for this season are incredible, but when we are talking overall career, Derek Henry is number one. Henry has a total of 2273 yards and 26 touchdowns. Henry is a Junior and could go pro by the end of this season. Fournette is a Sophomore and he can take all the pride next year because his stats will be incredible by next season. I want everyone to vote and see who they think should be consider Heisman. Make the right choice everybody.

Who should be considered for Heisman?

Alright let me brag about Alabama now because it is time. Those of you that follow me on Twitter will get the most up-to-date information about how great Alabama is. I do not only tweet about Alabama just so everyone knows that. This video shows just how easy Derek Henry makes these plays look. I have talked about Eddie Jackson before, but let me just say that guy is a beast! He intercepted the ball for a 93-yard touchdown! Alabama ran all over those poor Aggies and they will do that again with Tennessee next week.

Since I did not watch the Alabama football game, I cannot all hail glory to their name. Well, yes I can. Anyways, time to talk about Utah and Arizona. My smirked face says it all. Utah still has not proven to me that they are number four in the nation. Heck, they are ranked number three now. However, everyone is talking this play. It was hilarious!! Below is the video and lets just say that it is just as bad when Utah dropped the ball before the end-zone against Oregon last year. Keep in mind, though, this is what the broadcaster said, "That is absolutely ridiculous." Utah began to improve their offense in the second half. However, there wasn't enough improvement to make me think they are rated correctly. Utah is by far way overrated. If Utah was to play Stanford next week. They are done. If they were to play Alabama, they would quit. I got into a little mishap yesterday because I was all decked out in my Alabama gear and there were some ute fans that believe Utah could beat Alabama. I laughed hysterically because it was the most unrealistic accusation I have ever heard of. I am expecting Alabama to gain redemption from Ohio State and win the championships this year. 

I have not decided who I will be evaluating this week. Nothing has really sparked my interest, but something is always bound to happen during the football season. I feel bad for the Michigan fans. Michigan State had a 0.2% win probability when Michigan was making that punt return. What are the chances. You just cannot predict football. 

Utah Survives an Upset from California

What a football week. Most of the teams in the Top 10 AP Poll were in jeopardy of an upset. TCU almost lost to Kansas State. Tennessee won Georgia. Florida State was able to avoid an upset against Miami. Michigan State barely sneaked passed the Rutgers with a late touchdown. Then there was Utah and California. Talk about too close for comfort. Utah survived that game is all I can say. 

I did say I was going to evaluate the Utah vs. California game. Keep in mind, though of my criticism. Utah did not play like they were the number one ranked team in the country. Honestly, they should not be ranked for how many turnovers there were in the game. 

I am surprised that Utah was not able to convert all of those turnovers into touchdowns. Five of California's turnovers were in the first half. I have said this before in my previous post about the Alabama vs. Ole Miss game; no team can win a football game with turnovers. Turnovers are a big part of winning and losing. This article proves my point as to why it is nearly impossible to win football games with so many turnovers. "Any football coach you ask will tell you the one statistic they want an advantage in is turnovers," Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau said. "Every football coach wants that turnover advantage. Turnovers generally decide games with teams so evenly matched." How exactly does the defense create turnovers? They cannot create turnovers. Turnovers are random. The defensive coordinator cannot rely on his defense for turnovers. It is impossible. Not everyone can expect the quarterback to throw an interception and they also cannot expect the carrier to fumble the ball. 

I have done some research and found that if the opponent was to make a turnover, the home team is then 73% more likely to win the football game. There are a few ways to measure turnovers; turnover margin, Adj turnover margin, and turnovers luck.  Below is the graph that shows the turnover margin: 

I also want to explain other factors that can determine whether the team is going to lose or not. The first one is explosiveness. Explosiveness is 35% out of the 5 factors. Ways to measure that is yards per play, PPP, and PPP+. PPP means points per play or in other words, average points the team could get on that field position spot they are in. The second factor is efficiency and that is 25% out of the 5 factors. Ways to measure that is the success rate and third down conversions. Third is the field position which takes 15%. Ways to measure that is the average starting field position and the field position advantage. Next is finishing drives which are 15%. That is measured by points per trip inside the 40, red zone scoring, and red zone S&P+. S&P is measured by the success rate and the PPP. We have already discussed turnovers, but it is about 10% out of the 5 factors.  

Now that I have educated you all about statistics and how they are calculated, here is something you cannot really calculate. That is, what are the chances that the head coach would have this reaction for a turnover?

https://vine.co/v/e0TUKmZKMAI

Anyways, back to Utah and California. I will not even bother trying to calculate the statistics for that game since both teams played poorly. Jared Goff threw five interceptions. If I was the head coach for California I would start second guessing my choice for the starting quarterback. I will give Utah credit for one thing, their defense is actually pretty good. I was really surprised how well they pressured the offense. Clearly that was giving California a hard time, but do not forget that Utah made some mistakes as well. Travis Wilson threw two interceptions. California was able to get a field goal with one of those interceptions. Regardless that California got a field goal, if those interceptions were turned into touchdowns Utah would have lost the game. Utah was able to get two touchdowns and a field goal with those turnovers from California. Again, California had a total of six turnovers and Utah was only able to turn three of those turnovers to points. Utah would have nothing to worry about in the last half of the game if they executed their plays a lot better. 

The season of football is my favorite time of the year. I cannot wait for the playoffs because that is the true test to find out who is the best college football team in the nation. There are going to be some really good football games next week. Michigan is playing Michigan State and that is going to be an intense and exciting game. Alabama is playing Texas A&M and I will say I am a little worried because they have been a difficult competitor in past seasons. LSU and Florida will be playing head-to-head for their spot in the top 10 AP poll. I will be evaluating the Alabama vs. Texas A&M game next week and be prepared for the tide to roll through. Roll Tide!

Alabama Proves They Mean Business

What a game! I was really pleased with how Alabama played offensively and defensively. Throughout the whole week, everyone told me that there was no way Alabama would be able to pull through. The reasons were that Georgia had the best running back and quarterback in the SEC. Well how do you like them apples Georgia fans?! What made you all to think that you had the best running back and quarterback in the SEC? Nick Cubb, besides his cool name, did not impress me at all. He did not have the qualities that I would expect for someone to have if they were to go pro. Oh Greyson Lambert. He just seemed so lost in the game. He had no rushing yards. Like really, the quarterback has to run at some point. At least he did not get sacked during his time on the field. I would recommend you all to check out my twitter and see the videos I tweet about. They show all the awesome plays Alabama made in that game. In the next few paragraphs, I will be boasting about how great Alabama played. If you do not like Alabama, you may want to skip to the last paragraph. Otherwise, roll tide. 

Jake Coker is the man. I was extremely impressed with how well he threw his passes. The weather can always be a factor for any team in a football game, but it did not seem to affect him at all. Coker's average for completing passes was about 68.8%. Lambert, however, had an average of about 41.7%. Ouch. Coker, even found some opportunities to run the ball himself and he even got a touchdown. Overall, Coker did very well this game. He threw some really far passes, the longest pass he threw was 50 yards and it was caught. Coker is going to do some amazing things for Alabama in the future!

Derek Henry is also my man. He is a beast and plays like he should in the pros. He gave Alabama's first touchdown of the game with this awesome play. He averaged at about 5.7 rushing yards. That is pretty good when the team is at a 3rd and short situation. He proved in that game that he is the best running back in the nation, not just the SEC. If he ends up going pro after the end of this season, I would not be surprised. 

So many glorious plays were made in this game that I just had to share them with you. My favorite play so far in this college football season was when Georgia was about to punt the ball and my man Minkah Fitzpatrick, blocked the punt and brought the ball to the end-zone for a touchdown! Another play was when Georgia had possession of the ball and Brice Ramsey passed the ball. I believe he was trying to pass it to Terry Godwin, but Eddie Jackson was right in front of him and intercepted the ball and ran it all the way to the end-zone for a touchdown! Alabama had a lot of awesome plays, but the last one I want to share is Coker's longest pass of the game. Alabama was in Georgia's 45-yard line and Coker threw the ball all the way to Calvin Ridley, who was at Georgia's 1-yard line when he caught it for a touchdown! It was a really beautiful play I must say. 

I could boast forever about how great Alabama is at football. Nick Saban said that he has always believed in his team since the beginning. So many critics lash to Alabama about dropping down in the polls, that there is no hope for them to succeed this football season and that Nick Saban should think about retiring after this season. Nick Saban proved them wrong in this article written by Alex Scarborough. "It's not going to be for you...because if it was up to you, we're 6 feet under already. We're dead and buried and gone! Gone!"- Nick Saban

Alright, non-Alabama fans, this is probably the part you will like to read. Although, I do strongly recommend to read the rest of my blog and see if anyone can prove me wrong. I may or may not will be attending BYU's football this week. Due to the lack of interest in the opponent, I may end up evaluating the Utah vs. California game. I have been really surprised how Utah has been performing this football season and I need to witness this in person. To all Georgia fans, that picture is for you. You are welcome.